Abstract:
An Explicit stochastic model (ESM) has been developed for seasonal planning of an irrigation system and was applied to a case study to find the length of inflow data at which the steady state polices stabilizes. The seasonal operational plan for the case study has been derived in two steps (1) generation of synthetic stream flow data (2) derivation of operational policies using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model with the transition probabilities estimated from the generated inflow data as well as historical inflow data. The main objective is to find the length of inflow data after which the derived policies stabilizes and become independent of length of inflow data. A comprehensive simulation model was also constructed to evaluate the performance of the policies derived from the optimization model. It is found that the operational policies inferred from the model reached steady state when the length of inflow data used is 60 years or more