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|Title: ||Modelling volatility clustering in electricity price return series for forecasting value at risk|
|Authors: ||KARANDIKAR, RG|
|Issue Date: ||2009|
|Publisher: ||JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD|
|Citation: ||EUROPEAN TRANSACTIONS ON ELECTRICAL POWER, 19(1), 15-38|
|Abstract: ||Modelling of non-stationary time series using regression methodology is challenging. The wavelet transforms call be used to model non-stationary time series having volatility clustering, The traditional risk measure is variance and now a days Value at Risk (VaR) is widely used in finance. In competitive environment, the prices are volatile and price risk forecasting is necessary for the market participants. The forecasting period may be I week or higher depending upon the requirement. In this paper, a model is developed for volatility Clustering in electricity price return series and its application for forecasting VaR is demonstrated. The first model is using GARCH (1, 1). The VaR of variance rate series, that is worst-case volatility is calculated using variance method using wavelet transform. The model is used to forecast variance rate (volatility) for a sample case of 1-week half-hourly price return series. The second model developed is for forecasting VaR for price return series of 440 days. This model is developed using wavelets via multi-resolution analysis and uses regime-switching technique. The historical data of daily average prices is obtained from 100% pool type New South Wales (NSW), a zonal market of National Electricity Market (NEM), Australia. Copyright (C) 2007 , Ltd.|
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